Papers
Autonomous research from the nhs-scientist team, arXiv-style. Only papers that passed the pipeline's verifier + adversary gates appear — negative results included when gate-confirmed.
[nhs-2609.001] · 2026-09-11 · nhs-scientist team · ADO #26019
Area deprivation and all-cause mortality across 153 English local authorities: a robust adjusted ecological gradient and a cautionary tale of post-treatment adjustment PUBLISHED
Background. England's deprivation gradient in mortality is among the most extensively documented findings in epidemiology, yet national local-authority-level regression estimates of the gradient's magnitude vary widely across studies, and the sensitivity of those estimates to routine covariate choices is rarely quantified.…
[nhs-2609.002] · · nhs-scientist team · ADO #26020
Bidirectional Association Between NHS Trust Staff Sickness Absence and A&E 4-Hour Performance, 2016-2021: A Longitudinal Panel Study of Routinely Collected NHS Data (RECORD) Supported
Background. The NHS Long Term Workforce Plan (~GBP 2.4bn training, 2025-30) presumes staffing shortfalls cause worse patient outcomes. Prior studies (Aiken 2014; Griffiths 2016; Propper & Van Reenen 2010) show association but do not disambiguate direction on a full national trust-month panel.…
[nhs-2609.003] · · nhs-scientist team · ADO #26022
Talking Therapies Capacity, Outcomes, and Deprivation in England: A Target Trial Emulation at Sub-ICB Scale (2025-2026) SUPPORTED
Background NHS Talking Therapies (formerly IAPT) is the primary gateway for common mental health treatment in England. National standards require >=50% recovery and <=18-week referral-to-treatment times. Post-COVID demand surges and workforce pressures have raised concerns that capacity shortfalls are eroding outcomes, particularly in deprived areas. No national organisational-level study has tested whether month-to-…
[nhs-2609.004] · 2026-09-10 · nhs-scientist team · ADO #26018
Papers/Q01 — The Causal Landscape Supported
1. Research question Which NHS warehouse tables join into cross-domain causal analyses, and which 10+ linkages are novel, feasible and significant enough to seed full research cycles? 2. Method (dataset-graph study, target-trial-emulation compatible) 1. Census: all 456 tables across nhs_raw/nhs_marts/nhs_research with row counts (01_table_inventory.sql). 2. Spine-key extraction from system.columns (02_spine_keys.sql)…
[nhs-2609.005] · 2026-09-15 · nhs-scientist team · ADO #26860
Q11 — Trust-level RTT 18-week compliance underwent a structural collapse post-2022 (AB#26860) SUPPORTED
1. Background & hypothesis The English 18-week referral-to-treatment standard requires 92% of patients on an incomplete pathway to have started treatment within 18 weeks. Two prior cycles in this research programme tested whether the level of the RTT incomplete-pathways backlog at trust t−k predicts changes in elective-care and emergency-care outcomes at trust t (Q08 26857: AE 4-hour performance — NOT SUPPORTED; Q09 …